Fertility rate: what awaits the world in 2100?

The end of the century is already a topic that is beginning to be discussed and the situation for our children or grandchildren will not be exactly ideal. What would await the little ones who were born after 2010? It seemed the world would be more difficult for them.

Various studies have been concerned with the decrease in fertility rates in countries that are today potency. Japan, Italy, among others, would suffer from a terrible «inverted pyramid». This is the demographic pyramid in which there would be more older people and whose pensions would fall on an even lower rate of young people of working age.

Powers in free fall

The situation has already been noticed in countries like Japan that, according to a study recently published in The Lancet, is already listed as the country with the largest number of older adults in the world. The average exceeds 100 years and represents a risk and pressure on the country’s workforce.

The fertility rate is only 1.4 births per woman, which means that the number of people capable of holding jobs in the country is decreasing. To do this, they require a fertility rate of 2.1 births per family to maintain the size of the existing population.

In countries like Italy, recently hit hard by the pandemic, their population is expected to shrink to at least half of the 61 million they were until 2017. It is believed that they could reach 28 million by the end of the century.

Furthermore, despite being a transit country for many immigrants, the country has a high emigration rate. According to 2018 data, 157,000 people would have left the European country.

Africa grows

While the northern hemisphere and part of the southern hemisphere begin a free fall towards a population deficit, Africa could experience a notable increase. It is speculated that in the future, many countries may see a substantial increase in African immigration. Countries like Nigeria would experience abysmal growth with 791 million people becoming the second most populous country in the world.

Latin America

Brazil is one of the countries that has shown a noticeable change in recent years, and after being the second major epicenter in the world due to the pandemic, the situation worsens even more. The dramatic decline in fertility rate in the past 40 years has gone from 6.3 births per woman in 1960 to 1.7 today.

As for the estimates, the figures are alarming. The population of 211 million in 2017 may rise to just 164 million by the end of the century, making it one of the Latin American countries with a young population, but with less intensity of having babies in the future.