By 2019, the economy in our country would show positive data. However, the opposite would happen and it would not grow up to 3.6% for the next two years. The forecasts for this and the next few years also suffered variations.
By 2020, the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Peru (MEF) places the GDP at 4% and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) at 3.8%, figures that are very close to each other and coincide in that The only way to reach the result is that public investment rises above 6%.
However, a week ago the World Bank (WB) projected a growth of 2.6% for 2019 and 3.2% for this year. While for 2021 and 2022, it provides 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These figures mean that it would grow less than 4% in the next two years. These estimates distance themselves from the figures announced by the MEF and the BCRP.
For Alonso Segura, former Minister of Economy and Finance, the estimates of the multilateral entity are much more realistic, since they would be around 3% and it is taken into account that external factors remain neutral. It should be noted that Segura indicated that the current conflict in the Middle East between the US and Iran would lead to a downward revision of Peru’s economic growth, if one does not act quickly and effectively to prevent the figures from decreasing.
On the other hand, the former Minister of Economy indicated that if there is a better management with public investment and if the execution of the works of the so-called Reconstruction with Changes is improved, these could add more figures to the Peruvian Gross Domestic Product.
Forecasts
Last year Julio Velarde, president of the BCRP, made public the following economic estimates that would favor the country. The sectors with the highest growth in 2020 would be the Fishing sector (23%), Manufacturing (9.3%) and Construction (5.3%).
To these will be added others such as the Agricultural sector (4%), Electricity and Water (4%), Services (3.6%), Commerce (3.5%), Mining and Hydrocarbons (3.2%) and Non-Primary Manufacturing (2.7%).